By Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)
Population development slowed internationally within the final many years of the 20th century, altering considerably our view of the longer term. The 21st century is probably going to work out the top to international inhabitants progress and develop into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked by way of low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those developments have triggered many to foretell a depressing destiny as a result of an extraordinary monetary burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce powerful social and fiscal guidelines and courses.
This is the ultimate quantity in a sequence of 3. The papers incorporated discover many examples and boost the root for potent monetary and social regulations by means of investigating the industrial, social, and demographic effects of the alterations within the buildings of inhabitants and family members. those outcomes comprise adjustments in financial habit, either in exertions and fiscal markets, and with reference to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.
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Extra info for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3
The variable growth rate method of the second section emerged in the 1980s and relaxes some of the strong assumptions of a stable population. It is much less used than the methods of stable population theory, not only because it is of more recent date, but also because it allows less powerful conclusions. Two entirely different techniques, that of inverse projection and the closely connected method of back projection were developed in the 1970s and 1980s. They are presented in the third section on “Inverse projection, back projection and generalizations”, together with a recent generalization that encompasses both: generalized inverse projection.
Ronald Lee introduced in 1974 a technique called ‘inverse projection’. Given an age and sex structure at time t = 0, and a series of birth and death counts for the period (0,T), the method computes mortality rates, fertility rates and age structures for the years (0,T). It assumes that the age schedules of both fertility and mortality depend on a single parameter and that the population is closed to migration. The method proceeds from one time interval unit (1 or 5 years) to the next. For each interval, it computes a preliminary number of deaths based on the starting population by age and an initial schedule of age-specific death rates.
1) has constant growth rate (no. 2) and constant age distribution (no. 3) defines a stable population. This assumption may be realistic in some cases, but more often, it is not. A population in which the growth rates of age groups are independent of time, but differ across age groups is called a variable growth rate population. The assumptions underlying this model are weaker than those for the stable population, and therefore more realistic when one knows that the population is not stable. Yet, the assumption of a stable population is widely used in demography for the following two reasons.