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Extra resources for Development Geology Reference Manual (AAPG Methods in Exploration Series 10)
The ENPV is the average value that could be expected if the venture or similar ventures could be repeated many times. Some ventures will result in successes and some will result in failures, but on the average, we expect to make the expected net present value. The next questions (covered in the next two chapters) concern methods for estimating (1) reserves, rates, and costs, and for estimating (2) chances of success and failure. Several important observations can be made about Equation (2). 5%-of the revenue from production.
30 Expected Value and Chance of Success 31 Table 1. Q EV = +$2,000 If the map shows an antithetic fault closure, then what is the probability that such a structural configuration will actually tum out to be present? This geological chance factor is formulated to apply to stratigraphic as well as structural traps, and in tacit acknowledgment that the structural map is ordinarily the single most important map involved in most prospects and many development projects. Also, structural "busts" are a common reason for dry holes (Rose, 1987).
Lr 0 .. .. 12; • . • I ... &:1 0 ... a. I t .... 0 � I 111111111 0 1 ,000,000 bbl 1 00,000 bbl 1 0,000 bbl 1 ,000 bbl I 10 II 1 00 Reserves I Figure 2. Worksheet showing graphical method of combining distributions to derive the mean reserves on three-cycle log probability paper. ·� 1 000 Uncertainties Impacting Reserves, Revenue, and Costs Table 2. 7o/o p 0o/o 1 P50o/o P90% = = = 28,000 72,960 1 80,000 Mza = 91 ,584 bbl aApproximated by Swanson's Rule. costs are assumed and the inflation component of the prevent cost overruns actually impose unnecessary burdens discount rate i s omitted (leaving a discount rate of on project economics by making projects appear to be more approximately 3-4%), the project analyst is assuming that any expensive to cany out than they actually are.